Spearfish, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS63 KUNR 101903
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1203 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog tonight and Monday morning
- Gusty southerly winds south-central SD Monday night/Tuesday
- Gusty west/northwest winds and a bit of light precipitation
  Tuesday, with gusty winds again on Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

Water vapor shows upper trof over southern SASK/Manitoba, with
upper ridge over the Northern Rockies, although there is a
distinct short wave moving into ID on the western periphery of
the ridge. At the surface, relatively light west/northwest winds
with early afternoon temps mainly in the 50s to lower 60s.

Aforementioned short wave over ID will cross the area late
tonight and early Monday, with the main impact being increased
mid/high clouds (although a few models suggest some sprinkles).
Given the recent rainfall and the expected return flow, there is
enough of a signal for some low clouds and fog to form in areas so
have introduced this to the forecast for late tonight and Monday
morning. The return flow and expected increase in clouds will
result in slightly cooler temps Monday.

Next upper trof moves through the Rockies on Tuesday and the
Plains Wednesday. Gusty southerly winds are likely to develop
Monday night from southwest to south-central SD ahead of the
associated cold front and may approach advisory criteria for those
areas Monday night into Tuesday. The rest of the area will see
some gusty west/northwest winds on Tuesday behind the cold front,
although there really isn`t much cold air with the system so
expect mild temps on Tuesday. Not a lot of moisture to work, but
there may be some light precip in areas Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. Drier and mild but continued breezy conditions expected
Wednesday.

Upper ridge builds in for the end of the week for dry and mild
conditions. Next trof moves in over the weekend, but it looks as
if this trof will split, with the main upper low passing to our
north. Thus, precip chances fairly low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1010 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Expect a period of
scattered to broken mid-level clouds spread from west to east
after 06z tonight, with unlimited ceilings returning after 16z
Monday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...SE